It is imperative to go into your Fantasy Football drafts with an idea of who you would like to take in the double-digit rounds. The casuals, the newbies, the average Joes ... they're not thinking a step ahead. They have no plan for Round 10-plus.
And they'll be miserable for it.
What do I look for from a sleeper? The basic stuff for sure -- talented players who have a realistic chance to have a lot of opportunities to put up points. But I especially look for the guys who might be the hot names after Week 1.
An example from last year was Jaylen Warren. He was my favorite sleeper because I believed he'd end up with a lot of opportunities for the Steelers. As it turned out, he was good but not amazing -- barely better than Najee Harris in PPR points per game on the year, though much better through the first half of the season. He was serviceable!
That was good, but Puka Nacua would have been even better. The Rams rookie came outta nowhere to dominate targets early on, then settled into a starter's role once teammate Cooper Kupp came back. Nacua wasn't drafted in too many leagues, but you sure wish you had drafted him instead of fighting for him off waivers.
I'm looking for the next Nacua. The guy who I can take late and have as a starter for as long as possible. The guy who can change my team from "not bad" to "not gonna get beat."
Earlier this offseason I gave you 35 different sleepers. That's fun, but that's too many.
Through training camp I've whittled down the list to seven players, each of whom has an average draft position (ADP) of Round 10 or later on both CBS Sports and FantasyPros, meaning you should be able to reliably get these guys in those double-digit rounds. Plan on taking at least one or two of them.
For this edition, they are listed by their FantasyPros ADP as of August 16th. In my next sleepers story, I will list them in the order I would draft them.
Sleepers who will definitely get drafted
Courtland Sutton
DEN • WR • #14
TAR90
REC59
REC YDs772
REC TD10
FL3
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Sutton has led the Broncos in targets per game in each of the past three seasons and 4 of the past 5. It definitely looks like Bo Nix will be the Broncos' starter, but that's not the worst thing in the world. Nix acquitted himself well in his first preseason game and just might have the arm and poise to be at least a serviceable quarterback. There's late-round appeal in Marvin Mims, and keep an eye peeled for rookie wideout Devaughn Vele too, but Sutton should best both in terms of opportunities and be a safe, high-floor Fantasy receiver with some modest touchdown upside.
FantasyPros ADP: 120.6 CBS ADP: 118.6
I'd take him: Round 9 regardless of format
Brian Thomas Jr.
JAC • WR • #7
TAR0
REC1
REC YDs41
REC TD0
FL0
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Every report out of Jacksonville lately suggests Thomas has turned the corner and has begun breaking out. His speed, height, and long arms are all obvious traits, but the way he dodged press coverage and took off multiple times against the Chiefs, and then adjusted to an underthrown deep ball for a big gain were pretty good signals that he's not quite as much of a project as first believed. Make no mistake, he still has work to do to improve his physicality (he couldn't separate from a grabby corner on a comeback route and he didn't sustain any blocks) but he's got the makings of a potential Fantasy contributor. And you can't beat his price tag.
FantasyPros ADP: 126.8 CBS ADP: 127.5
I'd take him: Round 8-9 regardless of format
Chuba Hubbard
CAR • RB • #30
Att238
Yds902
TD5
FL0
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Given the starting job for Carolina's last 12 games of 2023, Hubbard was on pace for just over 1,300 total yards, seven rushing touchdowns, and 38 receptions. What he actually did do was average just over 12 PPR points per game in a weak offense behind a bad offensive line with a rookie quarterback. The Panthers drafted rookie Jonathon Brooks but it sounds like his recovery from a torn ACL will keep him sidelined until Week 3. Without a training camp to get him into game shape, Brooks figures to be brought along slowly, leaving heaps of work for Hubbard well into October. And if Brooks isn't ready or struggles for any reason, Hubbard might keep on rolling deep into the year. Sure, his upside isn't amazing considering the offense he's in, but the draft price is dirt cheap for someone who might be a Week 1 starter.
FantasyPros ADP: 148.6 CBS ADP: 136.2
I'd take him: Round 10 in PPR, Round 9/10 in non-PPR
Josh Palmer
LAC • WR • #5
TAR61
REC38
REC YDs581
REC TD2
FL1
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Take inventory of the Chargers for a second: They drafted rookie Ladd McConkey, they have a pair of seemingly disappointing wideouts in Quentin Johnston and D.J. Chark, their tight ends are plentiful but none are dynamic, and their star quarterback should come back from a foot injury just in time to be nestled behind one of the better offensive lines in football. And, Palmer is the only guy on the roster with multiple years of experience catching passes from that star quarterback, Justin Herbert. It doesn't bother me that the Chargers won't pass a ton because the targets Herbert throws when they do pass figure to be funneled to Palmer quite often. Who else is there?! Plus, in the 16 career games, Palmer has at least seven targets, he's hit 10-plus PPR points in 14 of them and 13-plus PPR points in 10 of them. Palmer is one of my favorite sleepers.
FantasyPros ADP: 162.8 CBS ADP: 134.9
I'd take him: Round 8/9 in PPR, Round 9 in non-PPR
Sleepers the rest of your league is sleeping on
Tyrone Tracy Jr.
NYG • RB • #29
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The last piece of news the public saw from Tracy was that he fell into a heap on the practice field and was helped off in an air cast. Fantasy managers who keep up with the news also know that Tracy was fine after the incident. That's amazing news because he might be the Giants' best bet on passing downs. The converted receiver has good speed and excellent hands, a great combination for an offense desperate for playmakers and likely to be playing from behind most weeks. Tracy's also adept at rushing, giving him a path to being a legitimate lead guy for the Giants at some point this season, just not early on. So if you take Tracy, be patient.
FantasyPros ADP: 199.3 CBS ADP: 151.7
I'd take him: Round 12 in all formats
Will Levis
TEN • QB • #8
CMP%58.4
YDs1808
TD8
INT4
YD/Att7.09
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Every single change the Titans made this offseason helped Levis. The coaches, new offense, the improved offensive line, the additional pass-catchers, literally everything. And for all of his deep passing and red-zone flaws, Levis had the lowest off-target rate on throws of 15 or fewer air yards of any quarterback in 2023. He's got the cannon and he can run a little bit too, he just needs to be harnessed by a much, much more proficient coaching staff. Any improvement he's made will go a long way toward him finding good numbers this year.
FantasyPros ADP: 204.8 CBS ADP: 169.6
I'd take him: As the 18th QB off the board
Zach Ertz
WAS • TE • #86
TAR43
REC27
REC YDs187
REC TD1
FL0
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Ertz's familiarity with Kliff Kingsbury's offense and his chance to be second on the team in targets help make him appealing as a late-round pick. The idea he'll ever be back in his old form is ludicrous, but he's going to play a lot and is still quite capable of earning targets thanks to his route-running. Camp reports said he and Jayden Daniels have developed a rapport, and it wouldn't be shocking at all if he emerged as a red-zone threat.
FantasyPros ADP: 248.5 CBS ADP: n/a
I'd take him: With my last pick that isn't a kicker
